To get the ball rolling…
Category Archives: General
‘Global Systems Science’ Conference (Ralph Dum)
The conference will help ‘Global Systems Science’ to develop an agenda of action both in research (in ICT and beyond) and in policy (as a coordinating concept). GSS has as ambition to unite different strands of research and policies trying to cope with global challenges. The attached document is an attempt to do so, based on preceding consultations. The conference will ideally help to evolve and expand this preliminary document. (Ralph Dum)
Towards a ‘Global Systems Science’ : how this conference should contribute
On equilibrium and bad economics for the global system
Orthodox economists, including New Keynesians such as Paul Krugman, think that economies eventually converge to equilibrium. This thinking can lead to the idea of a “return to normal” after any recession or depression, when the depth and especially the length of the recession might instead lead to a lowering of expectation by investors and a consequent lowering of the long-term growth rate.
It is very helpful to abandon equilibrium as an organising concept in understanding the processing at work during recessions and in forming expectations about climate change mitigation and carbon prices. It is helpful to realise that the interacting economies in the world system are not in equilibrium (or disequilibrium for that matter) but in a chaotic but remarkably orders dance with some outcomes more stable through time than others. Abandoning equilibrium also downgrades the search for the global social optimum in modelling. We can expose the absurd assumptions of the benign global dictator required to solve integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change economics such as William Nordhaus’s DICE family of models.
4CMR, University of Cambridge