A paper “Out-of-equilibrium actor-based system-dynamic modeling of the economics of climate change” by Dmitry V. Kovalevsky and Klaus Hasselmann is a contribution to GSS Preparatory Workshop for the 3rd Open Global Systems Science Conference (2014), 29-30 October 2013, Beijing, China.
The actor-based system-dynamic approach to integrated assessment modeling is illustrated for a simple model hierarchy consisting of a basic out-of-equilibrium model of economic growth and several alternative extensions demonstrating both stable and unstable dynamics. The evolution of the economy is governed by the strategies of key economic actors (aggregate producer and aggregate consumer) demonstrating that very different evolution paths can result from alternative hypotheses regarding actor behaviour. The paper serves as illustration of more realistic models designed within the MADIAMS (Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model System) hierarchy to assess the long-term impacts of climate mitigation.
Research that lead to results presented in the paper has been performed in the framework of on-going EU FP7 COMPLEX project (“Knowledge based climate mitigation systems for a low carbon economy”) and projects solicited by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research.