The discussion built on output from the workshop on “Uncertainty, Digital Sciences and the Long Term” that took place last September in Florence (more information here). There, we identified as a key research challenge posed by the radical uncertainty present in global systems, the transition from an idealistic model of decision making to a pragmatic and context-dependant one. The projection of a large share of social interactions on a digital space offers opportunities in this respect. It creates room for the development of collective foresights that might provide stronger support for better policies. It allows for a better understanding of social dynamics, for example the formation of conviction narratives (see the contribution by David Tuckett here), of norms, the acceptance or the refusal of regulation. At a more theoretical level, the observation of multiple networks of relationships can offer new definitions for the society as well as for the individual and hence breaks the dichotomy between micro and macro (for more on this see the contribution by Bruno Latour and co-authors here).

  Today, the conversation focused more specifically on the relationship between decision-making, society and time. An initial remark is that this relation is (today ?) fundamentally incomplete: the short-term perspective according to which most decisions are taken implies that long-term risks are accumulating beyond our planning horizon. Building upon this initial remark, we identify a number of questions that could be of interest for the third GSS conference.

First, this points towards a cross-cutting issue in GSS, which is how to approach multi-level systems ? In our context, this means how to approach and aggregate over time in systems with multiple time-scales but also, how populations get organized at different levels ? How individual functions are affected by the structure of the networks to which they participate and the functions of others in these networks ?

Then it points to a number of research questions about the design of institutions.  How can specific institutions be designed in order to deal with long-term challenges ? How can we design institutions for change ? How do socially resilient communities, that is communities that are both stable and capable of change, develop ?

Many of these questions would gain to be researched in a specific context, for example this of cities. Hence, while in China, we could ask (this is done in a very tentative mode here) about Shangai: if and why Shangai has always been a driver of change in China from the creation of the communist party to the role played by Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji in the early 2000s ? How is adaptation to climate change planned in one of the fastest growing  megacoastal city in the world ? Can Shangai be turned into the global financial hub of the 21^st century ?

GSS preparatory meeting, Beijing, October 29, 2013

Notes on the parallel session about agent-based models for GSS

In general agent-based models have proven to be useful in modeling systems characterized by emergent properties at macro level, heterogeneous interacting agents, networks and bounded rationality. In economics agent-based models emerged from the criticism towards the representative agent and the perfect rationality assumption.

The group discussed the research area in which they are applying agent-based models, which are the following:

• Transportation/traffic issues
• Disaster response (shelter topology & impacts on economic activity)
• Climate change and sustainable economic system
• Housing markets
• Macroeconomic & financial system
• Integrated risk governance

Furthermore, it was discussed that agent-based modeling is one of several tools, whose usefulness depends on the specific system or problem to be studied.

Concerning the usefulness for different applications, an important question that was addressed was: Where have agent-based models been used successfully? Where have they improved the understanding of specific problems and related decision making. We identified:

• Pedestrian traffic (where heterogeneity is not important, but the topology and a large number of actors are important)
• Panics in large groups/herd behavior in financial markets
• Epidemics

The first has been widely used to understand crowd behavior and design safer public structures such as subway stations and airports and possibly improve post-disaster management. The second have proven to replicate boundedly rational behavior of human beings, both in financial markets and in emergency situations. We regard the other topics as promising in terms of generating new insights.

An interesting question for the GSS conference would be how agent-based models can be used for analyzing global systems instead of for specific questions only. In this regard, we propose to invite agent-based modelers working on more elaborate models.

We discussed scale effects, in particular which number of agents are needed for specific applications. We discussed a proposals of aggregating agents (not using representative agents) and the possible levels of aggregation, such as micro or meso level modeling of agents.

Especially considering economic models we need to improve the communication with policy makers and mainstream economists.  In this regard, a crucial aspect which should be addressed in the conference is how to estimate, calibrate and validate agent-based models with empirical data.

Another important question is which programming tools can be used to share code and models and to minimize programing errors. Due to lack of time we did not elaborate on this topic. However, it is an important issue and should be addressed in the conference.

GSS Preparatory Meeting on October 29 2013 – Report on Working Group Session on Financial Systems

Suggested Dates for third GSS conference: October-November.

Topics touched upon in the discussion that the group thought should be covered in the next conference:
– financial networks, resilience against shocks, contagion etc. in the presence of complex instruments such as derivatives, collateralization, etc.
– climate-finance
– climate change impact on macro
– linkage finance – real economy and
– societal role / social function of financial system
– shaping a socially useful financial system
– finance is about assets and actors do not matter. this community is moving towards a view in which actors are central and not the assets. influence of actors.
– crowdsourcing
– actors, interests, values, stakeholders
– banks: how are they taking care of risk in the years to come?  linkage to integrative risk management working group.
– short-term versus long term. E.g. Pension funds: do the instruments they use really serve the social purpose
– international financial system political economy side

The above topics can be grouped in the following 5 areas that the group suggests as topics for the Sessions in the next conference.
1 financial networks and financial innovations and resilience
2. linkage climate change, sustainability – finance,  climate change impact on macro
3. linkage finance – real economy – shaping a socially useful financial system
4. actors, interests and values in the financial system
5. reforming the international financial system: political economy

Here is a review from the The Economist of 19 October 2013 of a report from the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations, which seems to bear on some of the thoughts aired by Carlo at the first Open GSS on the new for new forms of global governance.  For example “it proposes two modest but useful reforms. The first is to make more use of “creative coalitions”….  What it means is ad hoc groups spanning governments, multilateral organisations, business, charities and NGOs which try to deal with a particular problem outside the gridlocked processes of global governance. A successful example is the coalition that is sharply reducing deaths from malaria.  Its members include the United Nations, the World Health Organisation and ExxonMobil as well as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and assorted governments from big rich countries and small poor ones. The commission proposes a similar effort to detect and respond to cybersecurity problems (to be called CyberEx), and another (to be called C20-C30-C40, it suggests) to combine 20 countries, 30 companies and 40 cities in search of a common agenda for tackling climate change.